Risk of death and transportation
Clinical bottom line
The lifetime risk of dying in a transport accident is remarkably high - with most of the risk coming from road traffic accidents. While the risk of dying in a road accident in any year in the UK approaches 1 in 20,000, the lifetime risk is 1 in 240.
Data sources
- World Health Organisation Regional Office for Europe: European Mortality Database, http://data.euro.who.int/hfamdb/
- National Mortality Statistics: Deaths registeres in 2006, http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/
- National Safety Council: Odds of Death Due to Injury, United States, 2004, http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
- US Census Bureau, The 2008 Statistical Abstract: Transportation, Motor Vehicle Accidents and Fatalities
- Department of Transport: Road Casualties Great Britain 2006 - Annual Report
- Department of Transport: Road Casualties Great Britain 2006 - Annual Report
- Aviation fatalities data from National Transportaion Safety Board: Annual Review of Aircraft Accident Data 2003, http://www.ntsb.gov/publictn/A_Stat.htm
- Population data from US Census Bureau: International Database, http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/worldpopinfo.html
- Fatalitiies data from US Census Bureau, The 2008 Statistical Abstract: Transportation, Air Transportaion Fatalities and Complaints (Worldwide air fatalities 1987-2006), http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/transportation/air_transportation_fatalities_and_complaints.html
- Number of passengers travelling by air from International Civil Aviation Organisation: Annual Review of Civil Aviation 2005, www.icao.int/icao/en/jr/2006/6105_en.pdf
- Railroad fatalities data from Federal Railroad Administration Office of Safety Analysis, http://safetydata.fra.dot.gov/officeofsafety/publicsite/Query/stateoverview.aspx
- Department for Transport: Transport Statistics Great Britain 2006 Edition, http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/statistics/datatablespublications/tsgb/edition2006.pdf
What the sources tell us
There are remarkable differences and similarities. The biggest differences occur between different modes of travel. Rail and plane are much safer in terms of annual and lifetime odds than road when calculated in terms of deaths and total populations.
There are differences between countries and regions of the world, with the UK faring reasonably well on international comparisons of road deaths.
Give us the odds
Table 1 shows the results in terms of annual risk and lifetime risk. Note that these risks are calculated on a population basis, not miles or kilometres travelled, or journeys taken. The numbers change when those other calculations are made.
Table 1: Risk of dying in transportation accident on a population basis
|
Country |
Year |
Deaths |
Population |
Crude rate per 100,000 population |
Annual odds (1 in ) |
Lifetime odds (1 in ) |
| All transport accidents | ||||||
| US | 2004 | 47,385 |
293,656,842 |
16.14 |
6,197 |
80 |
| UK | 2004 | 3,555 |
59,834,312 |
5.94 |
16,831 |
229 |
| EU | 2004 | 127 |
||||
| France | 2004 | 5,389 |
60,643,308 |
8.89 |
11,253 |
151 |
| Germany | 2004 | 6,087 |
82,501,272 |
7.38 |
13,554 |
185 |
| Spain | 2004 | 5,287 |
42,691,752 |
12.38 |
8,075 |
115 |
| Ukraine | 2004 | 9,427 |
47,271,272 |
19.94 |
5,014 |
69 |
| Motor vehicle accidents | ||||||
| US | 2005 | 43,443 |
281,421,906 |
15.44 |
6,478 |
82 |
| UK | 2004 | 3,389 |
59,834,312 |
5.66 |
17,655 |
240 |
| France | 2004 | 5,171 |
60,643,308 |
8.53 |
11,728 |
158 |
| EU | 2004 | 137 |
||||
| Ukraine | 2004 | 7,939 |
47,271,272 |
16.79 |
5,954 |
82 |
| Pedestrian killed in RTA | ||||||
| US | 2005 | 4,881 |
281,421,906 |
1.73 |
57,657 |
730 |
| UK | 2006 | 675 |
58,858,000 |
1.15 |
87,197 |
1104 |
| Cyclist killed in RTA | ||||||
| US | 2005 | 784 |
281,421,906 |
0.28 |
358,957 |
4544 |
| UK | 2006 | 146 |
58,858,000 |
0.25 |
403,137 |
5103 |
| Motorcyclist killed in RTA | ||||||
| US | 2005 | 4,398 |
281,421,906 |
1.56 |
63,989 |
810 |
| UK | 2006 | 599 |
58,858,000 |
1.02 |
98,260 |
1244 |
| Car user killed in RTA | ||||||
| US | 2005 | 18,440 |
281,421,906 |
6.55 |
15,261 |
193 |
| UK | 2006 | 1,612 |
58,858,000 |
2.74 |
36,512 |
462 |
| Passenger airline | ||||||
| US | 2003 | 66 |
290,809,777 |
0.02 |
4,406,209 |
55078 |
| UK | 2006 | 17 |
60,023,858 |
0.03 |
3,530,815 |
44135 |
| Worldwide | 2006 | 755 |
6,548,696,975 |
0.01 |
8,673,771 |
108422 |
| 755 |
704,000,000 |
0.11 |
932,450 |
11656 |
||
| Passenger train | ||||||
| US | 2006 | 2 |
299,398,484 |
0.0007 |
149,699,242 |
1871241 |
| UK | 2005 | 10 |
58,858,000 |
0.02 |
5,885,800 |
73573 |
Comment
The lifetime risk of dying in a transport accident is remarkably high - with most of the risk coming from road traffic accidents. While the risk of dying in a road accident in any year in the UK approaches 1 in 20,000, the lifetime risk is 1 in 240. In the Ukraine it is 1 in 80.