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Risk of dying from medical conditions

Clinical bottom line

Information on some medical conditions and annual and lifetime risk of death. The big killers are heart disease and cancer in western industrialised countries.


Data sources

For this summary of medical conditions as a cause of death there were many sources. A downloadable PDF provides references and data sources.

What the sources tell us

The calculations here provide average annual and lifetime risks, mostly derived from UK and US sources. These will reflect the sorts of rates that pertain in western industrialised countries. In other parts of the world there will be major causes of death that don't even figure on our tables.

The sources tell us that heart disease and cancer are the big killer - no surprise there. But there is also information on a number of other conditions of interest, at least to some of us.

Check against the leading causes of death in the USA.

Give us the odds

Table 1: Annual and lifetime risks of dying of a variety of medical conditions

Cause of death
Country
Year
Deaths
Population

Annual odds of dying

(1 in )

Crude rate per 100,000 population

Lifetime odds

(1 in )

Lung Cancer Scotland 2005 4,543 5,094,800
1,121
89.2
14
UK 2005 33,465 60,023,858
1,794
55.8
23
England and Wales 2006 29,332 53,728,800
1,832
54.6
23
US 2006 162,460 299,398,484
1,843
54.3
23
All cancers UK 2005 153,491 60,023,858
391
255.7
5
England and Wales 2006 135,635 53,728,800
396
252.4
5
Scotland 2005 26,509 5,094,800
192
520.3
2
US 2006 564,830 299,398,484
530
188.7
7
Canada 2004 66,947 31,946,316
477
209.6
6
All cancers (under 75 yrs) UK 2006 70,228 60,023,858
855
117.0
11
Breast Cancer (in women) UK 2006 12,319 30,893,382
2,508
39.9
32
England and Wales 2006 10,942 27,257,700
2,491
40.1
32
Scotland 2005 3,998 2,638,691
660
151.5
8
US 2006 40,970 151,886,332
3,707
27.0
47
Breast Cancer (in men) UK 2006 73 29,693,967
406,767
0.25
5,149
  England and Wales 2006 69 26,371,200
382,191
0.26
4,838
Scotland 2005 20 2,456,109
122,805
0.81
1,554
US 2006 460 147,512,152
320,679
0.31
4,059
Prostate Cancer (in men) UK 2005 10,000 29,497,036
2,950
33.9
37
England and Wales 2006 9,057 26,371,200
2,912
34.3
37
Scotland 2005 2,420 2,693,967
1,113
89.8
14
US 2006 27,350 147,512,152
5,393
18.5
68
Diabetes Mellitus England and Wales 2006 5,490 53,728,800
9,787
10.2
124
US 2005 71,200 281,421,906
3,953
25.3
50
Parkinson's Disease England and Wales 2006 4,106 53,728,800
13,085
7.6
166
US 2005 18,574 281,421,906
15,152
6.6
192
Ischaemic Heart Disease England and Wales 2006 82,619 53,728,800
650
153.8
8
Major Cardiovascular Disease (I00-I78) England and Wales 2006 170,696 53,728,800
315
317.7
4
US 2005 812,746 281,421,906
346
288.8
4
Canada 2004 72,338 31,946,316
442
226.4
Heart Disease US 2002 696,947 288,368,698
414
241.7
5
Pneumonia England and Wales 2006 22,674 53,728,800
2,370
42.2
30
US 2005 57,973 281,421,906
4,854
20.6
61
Tuberculosis England and Wales 2006 383 53,728,800
140,284
0.7
1,776
US 2005 563 281,421,906
500,000
0.2
6,329
Gastric and Duodenal Ulcer England and Wales 2006 3,160 53,728,800
17,003
5.9
215
US 2005 3,377 281,421,906
83,333
1.2
1,055
Chronic Liver Disease and Cirrhosis (K70, K73-K74) England and Wales 2006 6,250 53,728,800
8,597
11.6
109
US 2005 26,172 281,421,906
10,753
9.3
136
France 2004    
8,795
11.4
111
Ukraine 2004    
2,779
36.0
35
EU 2004    
6,826
14.7
86
Moldova 2004    
955
104.7
12
Aortic Aneurysm US 2002 14,818 288,368,698
19,461
5.1
246
England and Wales 2006 6,388 53,728,800
8,411
11.9
106
Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Sweden 2000-2004    
11,099
9.0
AAA before reaching hospital or without operation        
16,816
5.9
Dementia England and Wales 2006 13,289 53,728,800
4,043
24.7
51
Complications of labour and delivery England and Wales 2006 4 53,728,800
13,432,200
0.01
Anaesthesia England and Wales 2006 7 53,728,800
7,675,543
0.01
Amputation of limb England and Wales 2006 67 53,728,800
801,922
0.12

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